Robust forecasts on fundamental physics from the foreground-obscured, gravitationally-lensed CMB polarization

[Abridged] Recent results from the BICEP, Keck Array and Planck Collaborations demonstrate that Galactic foregrounds are an unavoidable obstacle in the search for evidence of inflationary gravitational waves in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization. Beyond the foregrounds, the effect of lensing by intervening large-scale structure further obscures all but the strongest inflationary signals permitted by current data. With a plethora of ongoing and upcoming experiments aiming to measure these signatures, careful and self-consistent consideration of experiments' foreground- and lensing-removal capabilities is critical in obtaining credible forecasts of their performance. We investigate the capabilities of instruments such as Advanced ACTPol, BICEP3 and Keck Array, CLASS, EBEX10K, PIPER, Simons Array, SPT-3G and SPIDER, and projects as COrE+, LiteBIRD-ext, PIXIE and Stage IV, to clean contamination due to polarized synchrotron and dust from raw multi-frequency data, and remove lensing from the resulting co-added CMB maps (either using iterative CMB-only techniques or through cross-correlation with external data). Incorporating these effects, we present forecasts for the constraining power of these experiments in terms of inflationary physics, the neutrino sector, and dark energy parameters. Made publicly available through an online interface, this tool enables the next generation of CMB experiments to foreground-proof their designs, optimize their frequency coverage to maximize scientific output, and determine where cross-experimental collaboration would be most beneficial. We find that analyzing data from ground, balloon and space instruments in complementary combinations can significantly improve component separation performance, delensing, and cosmological constraints over individual datasets.Comment: 37 pages plus appendices, 15 figures; first two authors contributed equally to this work; forecasting tool available at http://turkey.lbl.gov. v4: matches version published in JCAP (with extended dark energy constraints

Dynamical behavior of generic quintessence potentials: constraints on key dark energy observables

We perform a comprehensive study of a class of dark energy models - scalar field models where the effective potential can be described by a polynomial series - exploring their dynamical behavior using the method of flow equations that has previously been applied to inflationary models. Using supernova, baryon oscillation, CMB and Hubble constant data, and an implicit theoretical prior imposed by the scalar field dynamics, we find that the LCDM model provides an excellent fit to the data. Constraints on the generic scalar field potential parameters are presented, along with the reconstructed w(z) histories consistent with the data and the theoretical prior. We propose and pursue computationally feasible algorithms to obtain estimates of the principal components of the equation of state, as well as parameters w_0 and w_a. Further, we use the Monte Carlo Markov Chain machinery to simulate future data based on the Joint Dark Energy Mission, Planck and baryon acoustic oscillation surveys and find that the inverse area figure of merit improves nearly by an order of magnitude. Therefore, most scalar field models that are currently consistent with data can be potentially ruled out by future experiments. We also comment on the classification of dark energy models into "thawing'" and "freezing" in light of the more diverse evolution histories allowed by this general class of potentials.Comment: 22 pages and 12 figures, minor clarifications and a new Figure (#9) added in v3, matches the published PRD version. Chains and high-res figures are available at http://kicp.uchicago.edu/~dhuterer/DE_FLOWROLL/de_flowroll.htm

A novel sampling theorem on the rotation group

We develop a novel sampling theorem for functions defined on the three-dimensional rotation group SO(3) by connecting the rotation group to the three-torus through a periodic extension. Our sampling theorem requires $4L^3$ samples to capture all of the information content of a signal band-limited at $L$, reducing the number of required samples by a factor of two compared to other equiangular sampling theorems. We present fast algorithms to compute the associated Fourier transform on the rotation group, the so-called Wigner transform, which scale as $O(L^4)$, compared to the naive scaling of $O(L^6)$. For the common case of a low directional band-limit $N$, complexity is reduced to $O(N L^3)$. Our fast algorithms will be of direct use in speeding up the computation of directional wavelet transforms on the sphere. We make our SO3 code implementing these algorithms publicly available.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, minor changes to match version accepted for publication. Code available at http://www.sothree.or

Bayesian Analysis of Inflation II: Model Selection and Constraints on Reheating

We discuss the model selection problem for inflationary cosmology. We couple ModeCode, a publicly-available numerical solver for the primordial perturbation spectra, to the nested sampler MultiNest, in order to efficiently compute Bayesian evidence. Particular attention is paid to the specification of physically realistic priors, including the parametrization of the post-inflationary expansion and associated thermalization scale. It is confirmed that while present-day data tightly constrains the properties of the power spectrum, it cannot usefully distinguish between the members of a large class of simple inflationary models. We also compute evidence using a simulated Planck likelihood, showing that while Planck will have more power than WMAP to discriminate between inflationary models, it will not definitively address the inflationary model selection problem on its own. However, Planck will place very tight constraints on any model with more than one observationally-distinct inflationary regime -- e.g. the large- and small-field limits of the hilltop inflation model -- and put useful limits on different reheating scenarios for a given model.Comment: ModeCode package available from http://zuserver2.star.ucl.ac.uk/~hiranya/ModeCode/ModeCode (requires CosmoMC and MultiNest); to be published in PRD. Typos fixe

Cosmological Constraints on Dissipative Models of Inflation

(Abridged) We study dissipative inflation in the regime where the dissipative term takes a specific form, \Gamma=\Gamma(\phi), analyzing two models in the weak and strong dissipative regimes with a SUSY breaking potential. After developing intuition about the predictions from these models through analytic approximations, we compute the predicted cosmological observables through full numerical evolution of the equations of motion, relating the mass scale and scale of dissipation to the characteristic amplitude and shape of the primordial power spectrum. We then use Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to constrain a subset of the models with cosmological data from the cosmic microwave background (WMAP three-year data) and large scale structure (SDSS Luminous Red Galaxy power spectrum). We find that the posterior distributions of the dissipative parameters are highly non-Gaussian and their allowed ranges agree well with the expectations obtained using analytic approximations. In the weak regime, only the mass scale is tightly constrained; conversely, in the strong regime, only the dissipative coefficient is tightly constrained. A lower limit is seen on the inflation scale: a sub-Planckian inflaton is disfavoured by the data. In both weak and strong regimes, we reconstruct the limits on the primordial power spectrum and show that these models prefer a {\it red} spectrum, with no significant running of the index. We calculate the reheat temperature and show that the gravitino problem can be overcome with large dissipation, which in turn leads to large levels of non-Gaussianity: if dissipative inflation is to evade the gravitino problem, the predicted level of non-Gaussianity might be seen by the Planck satellite.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, Accepted by JCAP without text changes, References adde

Bayesian Analysis of Inflation III: Slow Roll Reconstruction Using Model Selection

We implement Slow Roll Reconstruction -- an optimal solution to the inverse problem for inflationary cosmology -- within ModeCode, a publicly available solver for the inflationary dynamics. We obtain up-to-date constraints on the reconstructed inflationary potential, derived from the WMAP 7-year dataset and South Pole Telescope observations, combined with large scale structure data derived from SDSS Data Release 7. Using ModeCode in conjunction with the MultiNest sampler, we compute Bayesian evidence for the reconstructed potential at each order in the truncated slow roll hierarchy. We find that the data are well-described by the first two slow roll parameters, \epsilon and \eta, and that there is no need to include a nontrivial \xi parameter.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, minor changes; final version; accepted in PR